2027: Battle for running mates intensifies

2027: Battle for running mates intensifies

Politicians often say that one of the biggest challenges for contesting executive positions, whether presidential or governorship in Nigeria, is the task of picking running mates. Since 1979 when Nigeria adopted the presidential system of government where candidates for executive offices are expected to pick their running mates to qualify for contests, the journey has not always been smooth for both the presidential and governorship candidates. Currently, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed June 26 for the release of access codes to its nomination portal and July 11 as the deadline for the submission of candidates’ particulars for the 2027 general elections. By then all the parties are supposed to submit all information required to field candidates including that of their running mates. Our plans for life after retirement – Nigerian workers Our ordeal in South Africa – Nigerian returnees Section 142(1) of the 1999 Constitution insists that “a candidate for an election to the office of President shall not be deemed to be validly nominated unless he nominates another candidate as his associate… who is to occupy the office of Vice President. Due to the challenges involved in picking running mates, however, candidates that are yet to make up their minds usually submit any name in what is called ‘place holder; as there’s room for substitution along the line. Our correspondent recalls that Bola Ahmed Tinubu as candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2023 picked Ibrahim Kabir Masari as a place holder/ interim vice presidential nominee but later substituted him with Kashim Shettima. Analysts say taking a final decision is usually complex because, rather than the decision resting squarely on the shoulders of the candidate, it is stretched widely to accommodate many interests that include geopolitical balancing, where the candidate has to pick his running mate from another zone to show inclusion; interests of stakeholders like the financiers of the campaign, traditional rulers, party stalwarts; age and gender issues are also factored in. Prof Murtala Mohammed, a political scientist said several factors are considered. “Governors evaluate the electoral value of potential running mates, including their popularity, grassroots support networks, political structures, and capacity to mobilise votes. “Competence, administrative experience, leadership qualities, loyalty, trustworthiness, and even financial and organisational capacity are equally important in determining who eventually emerges as the preferred candidate,” he said. Currently, all the eight political parties that have nominated their presidential candidates including the APC, are said to be discussing the issue of running mates. The most curious has been that of the ruling party which ought to have been a settled matter but has become an issue because barely two years in office, it was widely reported that the president was contemplating replacing the VP with another. Though the matter has been managed to a large extent, sources in the APC say it has not fizzled out totally. A party source told our correspondent that as the ruling party, the president was expected to have declared when he received his Certificate of Return, that he would be running alongside the vice president in 2027, so as to foreclose the matter and ward off lobbyists. “That he has not done so is an invitation for others to sustain the pressure,” he stated. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) which has Atiku as presidential candidate is also battling with who to come up with as running mate, though there are indications that the party may have zeroed in on former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Ameachi. Though, the former Rivers State governor has said he is not interested in the vice presidential candidate position, sources in the party say pressure is being mounted on him by party leaders to accept the position as his candidacy would balance the ticket in terms of geopolitics and religion. So far, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has its case settled as former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has agreed to be running mate to Peter Obi who won the presidential ticket of the party. The Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) which has former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke, as its presidential candidate is yet to unveil its vice presidential candidate. For the PDP, both factions are still locked in crisis and it is not clear what the party plans to do next. In 2023, presidential candidate of the African Action Congress, Omoyele Sowore, chose Haruna Garba Magashi, as his running mate. It is not clear if Magashi will run with him again. Presidential candidate of the Accord Party, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, in 2019, when he ran as the presidential candidate of Peoples Trust, chose elder statesman, Chief Arthur Nwankwo as his running mate. It is not clear who he will run with in 2027, just as his candidature is still under scrutiny. How choice of running mates affects chances of candidates Analysts say the choice of running mates can affect the chances of candidates in elections both positively and negatively. The choice of Yemi Osinbajo for instance by Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 endeared him to the Tinubu camp and made it appealing to Christian voters. On the negative side, it would be recalled how in 2019, the choice of Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo by the governor-elect of Bayelsa, David Lyon, made him lose the mandate through a Supreme Court judgement. Picking of running mates in states Our correspondents report that the bigger issue lies with states where the governors are exiting. As governorship primaries have been concluded across the states ahead the 2027 general elections, focus has shifted to the persons successful candidates would be presenting as their running mates. A member of the ruling party in one of the North Central states told our correspondent that the governors; due to some factors end up pairing with people they have hardly related with or share common principles with. “When the interest of stakeholders override that of the candidate, they end up working with people they’re not compatible with leading to friction or malice which is kept away from the public,” said the source. Weekend Trust recalls that many deputy governors have fallen out with their bosses due to these factors. Senator Eyinnaya Abaribe, while serving as deputy governor to Governor Orji Uzo Kalu of Abia State survived three impeachment attempts while Kofo Bucknor-Akerele had to resign to escape an impeachment when she was deputy to Tinubu who was then governor of Lagos State. Our correspondents across the states report that while some candidates are currently trying to consolidate on their purported win as the parties are yet to issue them certificates of return, some have already decided on who to run with. Weekend Trust learnt that Lagos State for instance, has already settled for Damilola Sonayon-James as running mate to the APC candidate, Obafemi Hamzat. That of Lagos APC has always been faster as it is usually facilitated by the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) who are influential in the political affairs of the state. Incidentally, that is the state with one of the highest turnover of deputy governors due to incompatibility with the governors or clash of interest. For the other opposition political parties, our correspondents report that popularity or appeal to the non- indigenous voting population are considered. Weekend Trust recalls that actress Funke Akindele was chosen by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate in 2023, Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, based on her popularity. For other states, like Gombe, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Oyo and Kogi, issues like religious balancing play major role while in states like Benue, Kwara and Niger, the ethnic question serves as the major decider. Analysts say many reject being running mates because oftentimes deputy governors are treated as ‘spare tyres’ and never allowed any level of independence. Worse still, they are hardly given the needed support to succeed their bosses at the end of their tenure. The past Weekend Trust reports how in the Second Republic, it was a herculean task for Shehu Shagari to pair up with Alex Ekwueme, given the interest shown by others like Kingsley Ozurumba Mbadiwe and others in the position. At the end, it was said that it was Senator Joseph Tarka, who suggested that he looked the way of Ekwueme, given his financial contributions to the party and level-headedness, and he agreed. But it was not that easy for Obafemi Awolowo of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), who for the sake of geopolitical balancing shopped for a running mate in the northern part, but couldn’t get any of the prominent politicians from the region to agree, and had to pick Philip Umeadi from the Eastern part of the country to run with for the 1979 race. It wasn’t also easy for Nnamdi Azikiwe of the then Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) who could not balance his ticket with someone of a different faith and had to make do with a fellow Christian, Prof Ishaya Audu. In 1993, MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) also had it tough deciding on who to go with. The choice for him was between Atiku Abubakar who had the backing of Gen Shehu Musa Yar’adua and Babagana Kingibe, who was a former national chairman of the party. After much negotiations, he settled for Kingibe in what was later described as a Muslim-Muslim ticket. His counterpart in the National Republican Convention (NRC) Bashir Othman Tofa ran with Sylvester Ugoh, a former banker who served as governor of the Central Bank of Biafra. In 1999, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Olusegun Obasanjo had a tough time choosing between former governor of Kano State, Abubakar Rimi whom the party leaders wanted, but later settled for Atiku Abubakar while Olu Falae of the APP ran with Umaru Shinkafi. Situation in states Borno… [truncated]