Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is gearing up to back a Yemeni military campaign designed to recapture strategic positions along Yemen’s southern Red Sea coastal corridor from Houthi fighters backed by Iran, as Riyadh works to reverse recent territorial losses and secure the critical Bab el-Mandeb maritime route.
According to Reuters, the operation could begin within weeks and would be led primarily by Yemeni government-aligned ground forces, with Saudi Arabia providing air support.
The operation could involve a coastal advance or attacks on multiple fronts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Yemeni government forces likely have the capacity to conduct a successful offensive if their objectives remain limited.
Saudi and Yemeni government-aligned forces are already conducting airstrikes against Houthi frontline positions, reinforcements, supply centres and command-and-control sites.
The developing operation comes as Saudi Arabia deepens military coordination with Pakistan and Türkiye under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7.
The pact provides for mutual defence among the three countries, while Pakistani and Turkish officials have indicated readiness to support Saudi Arabia.
However, Reuters reports that Pakistan and Türkiye are not currently expected to participate directly in the planned Yemeni ground offensive, with their support focused primarily on Saudi Arabia’s defence.
Pakistan has supplied military equipment and advisers, while Türkiye has offered assistance with Saudi military needs.
Meanwhile, in Iraq, Iran-aligned militias Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya announced on October 1 that they would abide by an agreement involving the Shia Coordination Framework and the Iraqi government on bringing weapons under state authority.
The exact terms of the agreement remain unclear. ISW assesses that the arrangement could allow the militias to retain access to their weapons, potentially falling short of US demands for the complete disarmament of Iran-aligned armed groups.
What You Should Know
Saudi Arabia is gearing up to support a major military push by Yemeni government forces to reclaim critical coastal territory and secure a vital global shipping lane currently held by Houthi rebels. While local forces are expected to lead the ground assault with Saudi air support, broader international alliances with nations like Pakistan and Türkiye are currently focusing on mutual defense rather than direct combat involvement in Yemen.
- Positive Impact: Reclaiming the Bab el-Mandeb waterway could restore stability to a crucial international shipping lane, potentially reducing global supply chain disruptions and maritime security risks.
- Potential Concerns: An escalation in military offensives risks intensifying the regional conflict, worsening humanitarian conditions on the ground, and drawing in further regional tensions.
